A A$26 Billion Export Story by 2027–28
The Australian government’s Resources and Energy Quarterly has delivered a blunt message: critical minerals are no longer a niche growth option in Australia’s export mix—they are one of the few categories with a credible multi-year expansion path. Export value across critical minerals is projected to rise from A$16.726 billion in 2025–26 to A$26.166 billion in 2027–28, with lithium alone adding more than A$6 billion in receipts. For ASX investors, that forecast is not an abstraction; it is a map of where revenue, royalties, and reinvestment are likely to flow.
Rare Earths: The Fastest-Growing Line Item
The most striking number in the forecast is rare earths. Export value is expected to climb from just A$181 million in 2024–25 and A$361 million in 2025–26 to A$916 million in 2026–27, A$1.74 billion in 2027–28, and a peak of A$1.826 billion in 2028–29. That is a 37% compound annual growth rate through 2030–31, driven by the shift from a single producing mine—Lynas’ Mount Weld—to a string of projects across the country. The ASX rare-earth complex is therefore not just a Lynas story; it is a production-base expansion story.
Lithium’s Peak-and-Plateau
Lithium export earnings are forecast to peak at A$16.6 billion in 2026–27 before easing to A$13.6 billion by 2030–31. That plateau reflects moderating prices rather than collapsing volumes. Australia remains the world’s largest lithium producer, and the export value trajectory assumes that spodumene volumes continue to grow even as the price cycle normalises. For ASX lithium producers, the implication is that margin management and cost position will matter more than headline price momentum in the second half of the decade.
Iron Ore’s Decline Is the Backdrop
Critical minerals are growing from a relatively small base, and that context matters. Iron ore exports are forecast to fall from A$123 billion in 2025–26 to A$107 billion in 2026–27 and as low as A$79 billion by 2030–31, while total mining and energy exports rise modestly from A$403 billion to A$422 billion over the same near-term period. Critical minerals are not replacing iron ore overnight, but they are becoming a more important part of the growth equation—and that is precisely why Canberra is deploying policy support.
Mineral Sands and the By-Product Advantage
Mineral sands income is forecast to rise from A$1.082 billion in 2025–26 to A$2.048 billion in 2026–27 and peak at A$2.521 billion in 2027–28. A number of Australian rare-earth projects are designed to extract rare earths from monazite concentrate while producing titanium and zircon as by-products. That by-product structure improves project economics and reduces single-commodity risk—an advantage that ASX developers are increasingly highlighting to investors.
Policy Risk Cuts Both Ways
The export forecasts assume that government support translates into projects, permits, and production. That is not guaranteed. Australia’s critical-minerals strategy is competing with the US, the EU, Japan, and South Korea for the same pool of processing talent, equipment, and capital. If approval timelines slip or financing costs rise, the export curve could flatten. Conversely, if the US–Australia framework accelerates project development, the upside to the 2027–28 forecasts could be material.
What the Numbers Mean for ASX Portfolios
The export data supports a barbell approach rather than a single-commodity bet. Large-cap producers with diversified revenue—BHP, Rio Tinto, and established lithium names—offer exposure to volume growth, while rare-earth and specialty-metal developers offer exposure to the fastest percentage growth from a low base. The critical-minerals export boom is real, but it is unevenly distributed across commodities, jurisdictions, and stages of development. ASX investors who read the export math carefully will be better positioned than those who simply buy the theme.